Pre-owned inventory has declined 21.5% in the past year. All numbers quoted here are based on data collected from a variety of sources for a sample of 57 models that still have some visible form of market value left. 

A few additional points to paint some context:

• Inventory had been climbing for 18 months pre-COVID-19. Our tracking index hit a recent low-water mark of 665 units in September 2018. By March 1, 2020, there were 937 units for sale — a 40% increase.

• COVID-19 might have been an excuse for prices to crash overnight — but not because it inflated inventory. In fact, inventory in 2020 grew more before April 1, 2020 than after, partly due to a 16% decrease in new listings following the emergence of COVID-19.

• 4Q 2020 was bonkers. To put the historic year-end sales performance of 2020 in perspective, here are December sales over the last 4 years from our sample group:

2017: 72 sales

2018: 100 sales

2019: 126 sales

2020: 250 sales

• 1Q 2021 has been really strong, so far, for a 1Q. Inventory is down about 3.5% for the first two months as compared with increases of 7.5% in both 2019 and 2020.

• “Delistings” are at a 4-year high. In addition to strong sales activity, inventory is declining because sellers have been giving up at nearly twice the normal rate. One reason may be that “optimistic” sellers have been discouraged by lower prices — which are supported by lots of 4Q comps and are tough to dispute.

Inventory is now only 10% above the 2018 low which seems a shockingly good result given all that has transpired in the past year. Let’s hope this is an accurate predictor of better times ahead.

Have a great weekend.

TJW